Feb
24
2009
24
2009
Where the smart money is
I am writing this post from my PDA so bare with me. I am going to be calling similar post in future “micro posts”
Most domainers will not want to believe this. I am a domainer so this is a painfull micro post to make. I believe that for this moment, the smart money is in stocks not domains. GE stocks closed yesterday with a stock costing less than a GE flourecent light bulb. GM stock now cost less than a gallon of gas!
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Stocks may look relatively cheap against previous highs but the risk of getting in now is that there is a real chance of contagion in the markets making the prices you see today almost worthless. People are looking for a bottom, but in reality we are far from the bottom. AIG just announced a record quarterly $60B loss. The real bottom might occur when the economy deteriorates to a screeching halt and a new economy emerges from the ashes of the old. Not trying to scaremonger but this is a real possibility, cash has to be king right now.
You are right about the significance of cash now but if you hold on to it too long withot a constructive use, it might end up buying much less whwn inflation hits. I believe some stocks are worth considering as it is never prudent to put all of your eggs in one basket
Frankie,
I thought the same thing 3 months ago. 3 months from now, we will think this again as the prices drop even more.
If only we had a crystal ball! Or a time machine!
To figure out the bottom, you have to figure out what might be the driving force to kick start a recovery. After every great depression there has been a boom. But this decline is different as it is hard to see where the recovery might come from.
Could it be realestate? Unlikely, 2.2 million homes lie empty.
Could it be the auto industry? Unlikely too, over capacity is killing the industry.
Technological advancements? Hardly. It could be argued that huge technological leaps made since the desktop went mainstream is a factor in causing the present decline. As a matter of fact further technological advancements is likely to see even more job losses in any recovery.
Could it be be the services industry?Nope, it for the most part has been a smoke screen, any recovery there will be limited to a heavily regulated market.
Maybe this time the recovery will entail recognizing that the previous decade was a period of peak production(over production) and that the present decline is a pull back to levels of required sustainability rather than excesses of the past. Maybe we are heading to where the economy should really be at. If thats the case we have to recognize that full employment is a thing of the past and that as a whole we need a better distribution of wealth for all and an incentivized system for people that work.
Stocks may be cheaper now because of the economy but domain names are far less risk.